StreetEYE Blog

Druce Vertes, CFA


The Money Illusion

Irving Fisher is mostly remembered, a bit unfortunately, for writing that stock prices were at a permanently high plateau…right before the Great Crash of 1929. He also invented the Rolodex, pioneered early economic statistics-gathering, wrote of the Fisher money equation PY=MV and the Fisher debt-deflation cycle. (See Sylvia Nasar’s Grand Pursuit – interesting but wouldn’t consider […]

The New Information Diet: Web and Social Media Best Practices For Investors

The History of every major Galactic Civilization tends to pass through three distinct and recognizable phases, those of Survival, Inquiry and Sophistication, otherwise known as the How, Why, and Where phases. For instance, the first phase is characterized by the question ‘How can we eat?’ the second by the question ‘Why do we eat?’ and […]

Steve Jobs, by Walter Isaacson

Finally got around to reading the Steve Jobs bio by Walter Isaacson. It’s must read for anyone involved in the tech business. Some slightly less charitable takes: John Gruber is all I Am Disappoint there aren’t more insights into the products and strategy. Self-described underemployed writer Maureen Tkacik notes that Jobs was a Machiavellian liar, […]

Buffett, Stocks, Bonds, Gold

Warren Buffett contributed a Fortune article with his customary paean to the virtues of stocks over the long term. There is some worthy discussion from John Hempton and the pseudonymous Kid Dynamite.

Is Facebook Worth $100B?

Since everyone else is playing the Facebook valuation parlor game, here is a stab at it.

Are long term asset class relationships stable?

Last week, we looked at gold as part of a long-term asset allocation. I was curious about how stable those relationships would be over time, so I ran the same plots, starting from different inflection points.

Portfolio Optimization and Efficient Frontiers in R

If you want to frustrate someone for a day, give them a program. If you want to frustrate them for a lifetime, teach them how to program. A brief overview of how to use R to generate the analysis and plots in the most recent post, Gold as Part of a Long-Run Asset Allocation, using […]

Gold as Part of a Long-Run Asset Allocation

What does an efficient long-run portfolio look like for major US asset classes, and where does gold fit in? Let’s take US annual stock, bond, T-bill, and gold returns for 1928-2010, and subtract CPI inflation to get real returns.   Real Return   Real Risk Stocks   8.1%   20.1% Bonds   2.1%   9.1% […]

Over-The-Top Speculations

Case study #1. Megatrends: migration from wired to mobile unwired; broadcast & circuit switched to packet-switched Internet. Verizon cut a blockbuster deal with Time Warner Cable and Comcast, essentially sacrificing the declining fixed-line residential business to try to gain a big edge in mobile. Verizon bought out the spectrum the cable companies had warehoused to […]

2012: Toilet bowl or takeoff?

Some drive-by thoughts on Europe: While the LTRO takeup was larger than anticipated, the consensus seems to be the new ECB funding largely replaces old ECB funding, bank deposits that are fleeing, interbank credit and money market funding that has dried up. To the extent it signals the ECB will do everything necessary to prevent […]

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