StreetEYE Blog

Druce Vertes, CFA


The most popular keywords and sites of 2015

Here’s a word cloud of StreetEYE headlines in 2015 (click to embiggen). Greece (remember Greece?) beat out China for the biggest headline-bait of the year. Tsipras even beat out Yellen, although Grexit ended up a non-event. (To my surprise actually…Schäuble and Varoufakis were both apparently playing for Grexit, so I thought it would take a […]

The End of the PC? On Intel’s Apple and ARM problems

Tim Cook has been running around heralding the end of the PC. A self-serving assessment, but Intel and the PC ecosystem are going to struggle to maintain their traditional relevance. In this post, I will look at 1) the narrowing Intel/ARM performance gap, and 2) what the ‘end of the PC’ might look like. 1. […]

Is China’s sale of Treasurys ‘quantitative tightening’ for the US?

There’s this notion going around that since the Fed buying Treasurys was QE, therefore China selling Treasurys constitutes monetary tightening. Nope. The root cause of the disequilibrium and resulting capital flows is capital flight from China to the US. An oligarch wants to buy a condo in New York. He takes yuan to the Chinese […]

Tontines: strange name, great idea

A huge problem in retirement planning is a safe spending rate, so you don’t outlive your money. One side of the problem is, how much can you spend and not risk running out of funds in say, a 25-year retirement? See, for instance, our Cat Food Calculator mad science experiment. One can even calculate a spending solution which […]

God help us

A quickie, light rant on politics <cough> for a Labor Day weekend. As a jumping-off point, supposedly the majority of Republicans think Obama is a Muslim. That’s probably bullshit. As the Brits say, they are taking the piss. They don’t like Obama and pick the most other and derogatory (in their mind) response. If you […]

Smart Beta: Maybe Smart, But Definitely Not Beta

A donut with no hole, is a danish. – Ty Webb Live your life as though your every act were to become a universal law. – I. Kant So-called “smart beta” is having a day in the sun. Pioneered by the very smart Rob Arnott, the basic idea is: don’t invest in an index weighted […]

The Mathematics of Bluffing

A quick post about poker! That seemingly simple, deceptively complex game with a number of interesting parallels to investing. I just watched the MIT lectures on ‘Poker Theory and Analytics,’ an ‘Independent Activities Period’ mini-course, and for our mutual amusement, I worked through the math on bluffing, which is an interesting problem I had never done the […]

Through the Looking Glass

Curiouser and curiouser! — Alice in Wonderland Well, having written about Greece the last couple of weeks, why stop now? Quickie post to get my thoughts in order. TL; DR – Still seems possibly under-appreciated chance of bailout deal falling apart before it really starts, and likelihood of Grexit medium term. Let’s review where the […]

The Garbage Fire That is Greece

So, last week I said, Greece was getting booted out of the eurozone. Schäuble had refused to play ball with Tsipras, he would either accept complete capitulation or Grexit. Tsipras couldn’t accept complete capitulation and betray his allies and his mandate. And he didn’t have a mandate for Grexit. So he called the referendum. As […]

4 blinding glimpses of the obvious on Greece

More than any time in history mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness, the other to total extinction. Let us pray that we have the wisdom to choose correctly. — Woody Allen In times like these, your humble blogger finds it his duty to state the obvious: 1) Greece is […]

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