StreetEYE Blog

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Why Bitcoin is here to stay

In 2011 I blogged about why Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme doomed to fail. In the unlikely event these mad scribblings dissuaded anyone from hopping aboard the Bitcoin train, I humbly apologize. (Although it did subsequently fall 90% from its June 2011 high.) I don’t think any of the analysis was off base, but nevertheless […]

Amazon is making money

Profits, like sausages… are esteemed most by those who know least about what goes into them. – Alvin Toffler The punditocracy is blabbering on again about Amazon’s supposedly profitless business, see The Daily Beast and Slate, more discussion here and here. If you are growing an ever more massive business without ever having to go […]

The StreetEYE manifesto

“Being good…is not good enough! Everyone must be connected to our strategy, or we will find you, and weed you out! Information arbitrage is our business. If you don’t know what an information curve is, then find out! Position yourself in an information curve. Dominate the curve! Nick Leeson, who most of you know and […]

Obama goes all-in on Inspector Clouseau for the Fed

So, the Obama Administration is ‘all-in’ on Summers, despite nearly everyone who hasn’t worked for him (and a number who have) thinking he’s not the best candidate. The argument: ‘crisis experience,’ and the need for a ‘steady hand.’ Summers’s crisis experience is like Inspector Clouseau’s, the master detective who always seems to be at the […]

Risk arbitrage – Investing and poker

When I was young people called me a gambler. As the scale of my operations grew, I became known as a speculator. Now I am called a banker. But I have been doing the same thing all the time. – Ernest Cassel To win, you must understand the game, you must understand the players, and […]

“Cat Food” revisited – final thoughts – part 4

Here is the long-awaited conclusion to the wonky 4-part discussion of safe retirement spending. We went pretty far down the rabbit hole, and I think the conclusions are useful.

‘Cat Food’ revisited – testing dynamic spending rules – Part 3

In the last part of our look at dynamic rules for spending in retirement, we discussed how changing the allocation between stocks and bonds affects the maximum sustainable spending rate. We can summarize this relationship by plotting the highest feasible initial spending rate for any acceptable shortfall level.1

‘Cat Food’ revisited – testing dynamic spending rules – Part 2

The last post discussed a framework for evaluating simple dynamic spending rules. We defined a spending factor s as spending each year at a rate of s/(remaining life expectancy); and lifetime spending expectancy as the total amount you could expect to spend over your lifetime. We showed how, as you increase the spending factor, lifetime […]

‘Cat Food’ revisited – testing dynamic spending rules – Part 1

How much can you safely spend out of a portfolio in retirement? Spend conservatively and you may be unnecessarily curbing the lifestyle and aspirations of you and your loved ones. Overspend and risk a shortfall and painful adjustment – in the extreme, the (hopefully apocryphal) “cat food” diet. A traditional rule of thumb is a […]

What’s the worst that could happen?

It’s not whether you get knocked down, it’s whether you get up. – Vince Lombardi Playing around with DataNitro, an add-in that lets you run Python in Excel1. What is the worst that could happen to someone who owns stocks, bonds, bills, over a 1-, 5-, 10-year time-frame? Here are the worst rolling periods for […]


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